Pakistan Bloomberg Ranking 2025
By: Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din
The recent claim of Pakistan Bloomberg ranking “second among emerging markets” in a Bloomberg Intelligence report has been celebrated in official circles as proof of economic turnaround. But beneath the applause lies a sobering truth — this ranking measures less risk of collapse, not more evidence of recovery. The illusion of progress is being mistaken for prosperity, and that’s a dangerous game for a country still balancing on the edge of solvency.
When Pakistan’s finance adviser proudly declared that the country now ranks second only to Turkiye among emerging markets, news outlets such as the Minute Mirror and others echoed the message with patriotic enthusiasm. The framing was seductive: Pakistan had “outperformed” most emerging economies, backed by data from Bloomberg Intelligence. To many readers, it sounded like an overdue validation — the global financial system finally recognizing a nation’s economic recovery.
But that reading misinterprets both the data and the context. Bloomberg’s dataset did not award Pakistan a medal for stability; it merely noted that the country’s credit default swap (CDS) — a market measure of default probability — had fallen faster than most peers. That’s a sign of reduced panic, not of renewed strength.
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Minute Mirror
The Number Behind the Pakistan Bloomberg Ranking Narrative
A Credit Default Swap functions like an insurance contract against the possibility of sovereign default. If investors demand higher premiums to insure Pakistan’s debt, it signals fear; if the premium falls, it reflects tentative calm.
When Pakistan’s CDS hovered above 4,500 basis points in mid-2023, the market was essentially pricing the country as one of the riskiest borrowers in the world. Now, according to Bloomberg’s latest data cited by local media, the spread has declined to roughly 3,400 basis points — still dangerously high but marginally better. The improvement is significant only because the starting point was catastrophic.
This is what economists call base effect illusion: a small shift from disaster looks like dramatic progress when measured in relative terms. It’s the equivalent of applauding when a patient’s fever drops from 106°F to 104°F. Encouraging, yes. But the patient remains in intensive care.
The Anatomy of Short-Term Relief
This decline in CDS spreads didn’t result from new industries, rising productivity, or improved fiscal discipline. It came from crisis management, not reform.
In July 2023, Pakistan secured a $3 billion standby arrangement from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily restored investor confidence and averted imminent default. At the same time, friendly nations like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE injected billions in deposits, replenishing reserves and easing pressure on the rupee. Meanwhile, strict import controls improved the current account balance by suppressing demand rather than boosting exports.
Together, these measures created a temporary calm — a reprieve mistaken for recovery. But none of them addressed Pakistan’s chronic structural weaknesses: its narrow export base, inefficient energy sector, and ballooning fiscal deficit. As of mid-2025, the country’s external debt remains above $130 billion, and inflation continues to erode living standards. The fundamentals remain brittle, even as the optics appear brighter.
The Mirage of Rankings
Bloomberg’s “ranking” was likely a quantitative dashboard tracking relative improvements in sovereign risk metrics, not a scorecard of economic strength. By measuring change over time, rather than absolute risk level, it naturally favored countries emerging from crisis.
That’s why Turkiye and Pakistan topped the list — both had suffered massive CDS spikes in 2023 and both saw those spreads normalize somewhat in 2024–25. Their improvement looks impressive only because their initial distress was extreme.
To conflate such momentum with macroeconomic credibility is a category error. Stable economies like Malaysia or Vietnam would never appear in this “most improved” group precisely because they never fell as far in the first place. Yet in political discourse, “second among emerging markets” reads as triumph, not triage.
The Politics of Economic Storytelling
Pakistan’s political economy thrives on symbolic victories. Every administration seeks legitimacy through the language of recovery — a stronger rupee, a surge in reserves, or, in this case, a flattering ranking.
Numbers become narratives, and narratives become instruments of persuasion. The Bloomberg citation serves as a convenient talking point: global data validating domestic policy. But beneath the symbolism lies a deeper fragility — the substitution of optics for outcomes.
This pattern isn’t unique to Pakistan. Across emerging markets, governments often weaponize data to claim reform where there is only reprieve. It’s the political colonization of statistics: the transformation of technical indicators into ideological trophies.
Markets Don’t Clap, They Calculate
Financial markets have no emotional investment in Pakistan’s story. They respond to liquidity injections, not national pride. The same investors who lowered Pakistan’s CDS this quarter could raise it again the next if reserves weaken or reforms stall.
Interpreting short-term spread compression as “confidence” mistakes liquidity for solvency. What the markets are actually saying is: “You’ve bought time, not trust.” That’s a fragile kind of optimism — one that can evaporate overnight, as history repeatedly shows in economies that rely on bailouts instead of transformation.
What a Real Turnaround Would Look Like
A genuine economic turnaround would manifest not in bond spreads but in productivity, exports, and sustainable fiscal management. It would mean broadening the tax base rather than deepening debt; rationalizing energy prices instead of subsidizing inefficiency; building value-added exports rather than defending a weak currency.
In essence, real progress would shift Pakistan from crisis management to competitiveness. But that requires the political courage to prioritize reform over rhetoric — a resource rarer than foreign exchange.
The Symbolism of “Second Place”
Pakistan’s Bloomberg moment reveals something profound about how nations measure themselves. For decades, emerging economies have sought affirmation from global indices — whether it’s Ease of Doing Business, Global Competitiveness, or now Credit Risk Improvement. These metrics can inform policy, but when they become ends in themselves, they trap nations in a cycle of external validation.
To celebrate “second place” in a volatility index is to miss the point entirely. It’s like boasting about losing altitude slower than others in freefall. The applause is loudest just before the silence.
Conclusion: Beyond the Mirage
Pakistan’s “second-place” ranking is not a sign of arrival but a symptom of survival. The market’s message is simple: you are less risky than you were, but still risky indeed.
If Pakistan truly seeks to rank among successful emerging economies, it must stop mistaking momentary relief for momentum. The race worth winning isn’t the one measured by CDS spreads, but the one built on exports, innovation, and institutional trust.
Until then, this Bloomberg citation remains a mirage — a shimmer of data on the desert of policy drift, beautiful from afar but vanishing on approach.
Author: Dr. Ghulam Moheyuddin
Economist & Researcher | Exploring the intersection of markets, narratives, and national resilience. Follow on LinkedIn
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