The Population Disaggregation Model for Yanbu Using LandScan & Satellite Imagery is an advanced GIS-based spatial analysis project developed for the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu (RCJY) — the Saudi government authority responsible for planning and managing Yanbu Industrial City and Jubail Industrial City, two of the Kingdom’s most strategically significant economic hubs under Vision 2030.
Yanbu Industrial City, situated on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, hosts a major petrochemical, refining, and manufacturing cluster. As part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda, RCJY required granular, high-resolution population data to support precision infrastructure planning, service delivery optimisation, housing demand forecasting, and long-term city expansion strategy.
This project involved developing a comprehensive population disaggregation framework that combines three data sources: LandScan ambient population data (a global 1km-resolution population dataset produced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), high-resolution satellite imagery, and building footprint extraction using Google Earth Engine’s cloud-based geospatial computing platform.
The methodology involved: (1) extraction and classification of building footprints from satellite imagery using machine learning-assisted image recognition; (2) calibration of population density surfaces against existing census block data and administrative records; (3) production of a 100m×100m population grid covering all residential, commercial, and mixed-use zones within Yanbu Industrial City; and (4) validation of model outputs against ground-truth survey data.
The resulting population disaggregation model enables RCJY planners to identify population concentrations at neighbourhood and block level, optimise the placement of schools, clinics, mosques, retail facilities, and emergency services, and model future growth scenarios under different industrial expansion trajectories. The model directly supports Yanbu’s urban master plan update and integrates with RCJY’s GIS infrastructure for ongoing city management.
This project demonstrates applied expertise in spatial economic diagnostics, GIS-based population modelling, remote sensing, Google Earth Engine, and urban planning for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) industrial cities — core competencies in Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din’s advisory practice serving Saudi Arabia and the broader GCC region.