Identification of Potential Lockdown Areas during COVID-19 Transmission in Punjab, Pakistan

This study presents real-time COVID-19 spread mapping and monitoring methodology for identifying lockdown and semi-lockdown areas using hotspot analysis and geographic information systems (GIS). Data for all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Punjab Province were collected through October 2020. The study employs spatial clustering methods to identify transmission hotspots and implements near-future prediction modelling to estimate COVID-19 risk at the district level. Findings provided actionable intelligence for Punjab’s health authorities on the geographic concentration of transmission risk, supporting targeted and evidence-based lockdown decisions during the critical early phase of the pandemic.