Key takeaways
- The rupee depreciated from about 100 (2013) to 285 (2023-24) per US dollar.
- Exports went from US$25.1 billion (2013) to a peak of US$31.5 billion (2022), then fell back.
- Imported inputs, energy and finance costs erase the gains from devaluation.
- Buyers pay for reliability, quality and speed, not just low prices.
- Bangladesh and Vietnam grew exports through productivity and clusters, not currency.
In this Minute Mirror column (January 2026), Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din tests a long-standing belief in Pakistan’s economic policy: that a weaker rupee will make exports grow. A decade of evidence, he argues, says otherwise.
The argument
State Bank data show the rupee falling from about 100 per dollar in 2013 to around 285 in 2023-24. World Bank figures show exports of US$25.1 billion in 2013, a peak of US$31.5 billion in 2022, and a return to the US$25 to 30 billion range after the global slowdown. Nearly a tripling of the dollar’s price produced no sustained export growth.
The column explains why. Exporters rely on imported inputs, energy and credit whose costs rise with depreciation, so price advantages disappear. International buyers choose suppliers on reliability, quality and delivery speed, none of which the exchange rate improves. Labour productivity remains low because of limited investment in skills, technology and management. Energy is expensive and unreliable, ports and customs are slow, and cold-chain capacity is thin. The product mix remains concentrated in low-value textiles.
Devaluation, in effect, has passed inflation on to households and squeezed business margins without delivering diversification. Bangladesh and Vietnam grew exports through productivity, industrial clustering and consistent export policy rather than currency moves.
What needs to change
- Systematic skills development and technology upgrading.
- Long-term, predictable energy pricing and supply for industry.
- Nationwide trade facilitation: digitised customs, risk-based inspection and integrated logistics corridors.
- Industrial policy aimed at moving up value chains, not protecting incumbents.
- Competing on quality, compliance and delivery.