Key takeaways
- IMF programmes require contraction; CPEC depends on expansion and borrowing.
- Each track undermines the other, feeding a cycle of dependency.
- Repeated bailouts and currency instability undercut the regional-hub vision.
- The idea of a clever balance is described as self-deception.
- The column sets out two coherent paths and calls for a clear choice.
In this Minute Mirror column (October 2025), Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din takes a deliberately provocative position: Pakistan cannot pursue IMF-style austerity and China-financed infrastructure expansion at the same time, and pretending otherwise has produced dependency on both.
The argument
The two programmes rest on opposing economic logics. IMF prescriptions require contraction: subsidy cuts, spending restraint and a market-determined exchange rate. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor depends on expansion financed by heavy borrowing. When the IMF tightens, fiscal room for CPEC shrinks; when CPEC obligations grow, deficits widen and Pakistan returns to the IMF.
The column describes this as a cycle of double dependency rather than a balance. Borrowing from the IMF to meet Chinese obligations, and using Chinese finance to offset IMF-driven contraction, provides no long-term direction. It also undermines Pakistan’s ambition to become a regional connectivity hub, because investors are deterred by repeated bailouts and currency instability.
The author calls the popular argument for a clever middle path a form of national self-deception, and warns that without a decision Pakistan risks becoming a permanent economic patient.
The two paths
- IMF-led: full fiscal discipline, export priority, restraint on large infrastructure projects and reliance on Western capital markets.
- China-led: renegotiated CPEC contracts, debt-for-equity conversions, integration with Chinese supply chains and acceptance of the geopolitical consequences.
The column is an opinion piece designed to force a strategic debate; its central claim is that coherence, whichever direction is chosen, matters more than the attempt to keep every option open.