This opinion piece was originally published in Global Village Space on 17 February 2023.
The claim that Pakistan is an agricultural economy is so widely repeated it has become received wisdom. Agriculture still employs 39 percent of the entire labour force, contributes 22 percent of national GDP, and supports more than 60 percent of the population directly or indirectly. Yet Dr. Mohey-ud-din subjects this narrative to rigorous data scrutiny — and finds it largely mythological.
The first dimension of the critique is agricultural productivity. According to World Bank World Development Indicators, value-added per worker in Pakistan’s agriculture sector stands at approximately US$2,634 per annum — while countries such as China, Nigeria, Mongolia, and Mexico all exceed US$5,000 per worker, and Maldives leads South Asia at US$11,848. More damaging than the absolute level, however, is the trajectory: Pakistan’s per-worker productivity grew by only 23 percent between 1991 and 2019, rising from US$2,137 to US$2,634. India and Bangladesh — both starting from far lower bases in 1991 (US$864 and US$505 respectively) — recorded productivity growth of 140 and 154 percent over the same period. On current trends, both will comfortably outpace Pakistan on food security resilience.
The second dimension is water productivity. Despite possessing one of the largest irrigation networks in the world, Pakistan is classified by the FAO among the world’s 36 water-stressed countries, with a water withdrawal rate of 74.4 percent of total renewable water resources — on track for absolute water scarcity by 2040. The productivity figures are striking: Pakistan generates only 0.13 kg of cereal per cubic metre of water, compared to 1.56 kg/m³ in the USA, 0.82 kg/m³ in China, and 0.39 kg/m³ in India. In rice cultivation, Pakistan has the fourth highest rate of water use in the world.
The human cost of this underperformance is visible in Pakistan’s ranking of 99th out of 121 on the Global Hunger Index 2022, despite being one of the world’s largest wheat producers. The National Nutrition Survey 2018 found 36.9 percent of households food insecure, 36.7 percent of children under five affected by stunted growth (against a global average of 21.3 percent), and anaemia prevalence among women of 52.1 percent — nearly double the global average of 32.8 percent.
Making the agricultural economy claim a reality, Dr. Mohey-ud-din argues, requires structural transformation: agro-climatic zoning to match subsidies with suitable crops per region rather than blanket support-price distortions; diversification from traditional major crops toward high-value fruits and vegetables; and adoption of modern water efficiency technologies — drip irrigation, sprinklers, climate-resistant crop varieties, and rainwater collection — to close the enormous gap between irrigation network size and water productivity.
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