Key takeaways
- The US applied a 29% reciprocal tariff after a US$3 billion Pakistani surplus in 2024.
- Pakistan targets about US$1 billion a year of US crude imports to narrow the gap.
- Reko Diq's roughly US$9 billion development fits US interest in diversified mineral supply.
- Allocating 2,000 MW to crypto mining and AI raises FATF and energy risks.
- Institutional credibility and a non-aligned stance are needed to make the pivot last.
In this Minute Mirror column (August 2025), Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din analyses Pakistan’s shift from defensive to proactive trade diplomacy with the United States after Washington announced reciprocal tariffs.
The argument
Pakistan faced a 29 percent reciprocal tariff, linked to a US$3 billion trade surplus with the United States in 2024. That placed it between India at 26 percent and Vietnam and Bangladesh at 37 to 46 percent. Rather than simply lobbying for relief, Pakistan has offered concessions and opportunities.
The first is imports. A target of about US$1 billion a year in US crude oil purchases would narrow the bilateral surplus and build goodwill. The second is minerals. The Reko Diq copper-gold project, with development costs of around US$9 billion, fits Washington’s interest in supply chains less dependent on China, and financing of US$500 million to US$1 billion has been discussed with the US Export-Import Bank. The third is digital infrastructure: an allocation of 2,000 MW of electricity for Bitcoin mining and AI data centres and a new virtual-assets regulator position Pakistan as Web3-friendly.
The column sees promise but also risk. Crypto infrastructure carries FATF and reputational exposure, oil import commitments strain the balance of payments, and high-profile gestures towards US political leaders risk tension with neighbours.
What needs to change
- Secure IMF coordination or currency swap lines to cushion commodity import costs.
- Strengthen anti-money-laundering and cybersecurity rules to avoid FATF re-listing.
- Streamline bureaucracy and reform courts to reassure investors.
- Maintain a non-aligned posture rather than strategic overreach.