The Punjab Spatial Strategy is a landmark regional development framework — a US$60 million initiative commissioned by the Government of Punjab to chart the strategic spatial and economic development trajectory of Pakistan’s most populous and economically significant province. Dr. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din served as Lead Economic Analyst on this programme, leading the economic analysis component that formed the technical foundation for the strategy’s investment priorities and regional development framework.
Strategic Significance
Punjab province is the economic engine of Pakistan — home to over 100 million people, generating approximately 55% of national GDP, and hosting Pakistan’s most industrially diversified economy including textiles, agro-processing, chemicals, engineering goods, and services. Yet Punjab’s economic geography is characterised by deep spatial inequalities: wealth, infrastructure, and economic opportunity are heavily concentrated in a few major urban centres — particularly Lahore, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala — while the majority of Punjab’s 36 districts remain underdeveloped and economically peripheral. The Punjab Spatial Strategy was designed to address these imbalances through evidence-based investment targeting, growth pole development, and strategic infrastructure allocation across the province.
Economic Analysis and Methodology
The economic analysis component of the Punjab Spatial Strategy involved a multi-layered analytical approach. Growth pole identification was conducted using Location Quotient analysis — assessing the relative economic specialisation of each district and urban centre across Punjab’s major industrial and agricultural sectors. Shift-share decomposition was applied to disaggregate district-level employment and output growth into competitive effect, industrial mix effect, and national growth effect components, enabling precise identification of districts with genuine revealed competitive advantage in specific sectors. Spatial accessibility modelling was used to map infrastructure coverage, market connectivity, and the costs of economic friction across Punjab’s urban-rural continuum. Together these analytical tools produced a comprehensive economic map of Punjab’s spatial economy — identifying growth poles, emerging corridors, and underperforming regions with high development potential.
Strategic Framework and Deliverables
The Punjab Spatial Strategy provided a comprehensive evidence-based framework covering industrial clustering priorities, urban corridor development strategy, and infrastructure allocation recommendations across all 36 of Punjab’s districts. Investment priorities were specifically aligned with the CPEC economic zones framework — linking Punjab’s economic development agenda with the transformative infrastructure and industrial investment opportunities created by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The strategy addressed sectoral priorities across agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and urban services, providing district-level investment profiles and provincial investment sequencing recommendations.
Impact and Policy Relevance
The Punjab Spatial Strategy informed provincial investment decisions across the Government of Punjab’s key ministries and departments, providing the analytical foundation for evidence-based development planning at scale. The US$60 million framework represented one of Pakistan’s most comprehensive province-wide spatial and economic planning exercises, directly influencing infrastructure investment, industrial zone development, and urban corridor planning across Punjab. This engagement reflects Dr. Mohey-ud-din’s core expertise in spatial economics, regional development strategy, and economic planning for complex multi-district environments — expertise demonstrated across his portfolio of provincial, national, and international development advisory work.